As if the combination of a declining population, an anti-medical research Governor, a horde of screwball judges, and a Legislature dominated by DUI-loving defense lawyers wasn’t enough of a curse:
CNN.com reports that the Boston-Quincy, MA housing market has the highest probability in the US (over 55%) for a decline in prices over the next 2 years.
The numbers were put together by the PMI Mortgage Insurance Corporation. This is the same PMI that charges a premium when you put down a deposit of less than 20% on a home purchase.
From PMI’s own press release:
Nationwide, there exists a 21.3 percent probability of an overall house price decline, as measured within the next two years and across the 50 largest housing markets, up marginally from 20.2 percent last quarter.
In other words, the likelihood of real estate prices in Boston and the South Shore declining over the next 2 years is 2 1/2 times as great as the probability for the largest US housing markets as a whole.
The outlook is a little better, but not much, for the western suburbs: Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA has a 2-year price-drop probability of a little under 47%. The probability for the Providence-New Bedford area is 43%.
Compare this to Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton in the Pacific Northwest: their probability is only 9.5%.
PMI’s Market Risk Index is a statistical model that takes into account the federal government’s House Price Index, BLS labor market statics and their own affordability index.
Seeing this report today is especially poignant since I just found out today that some good friends, yet another bright, hardworking, educated young couple, are leaving the Cape at the end of this month.
Assuming Boston’s predicted decline manages to ooze its way eventually to the end of Route 3, guess my friends are fortunate to get out before the deluge.