The success or failure of the referendum on the Iraqi constitution rests on the vote from Nineveh, one of the provinces with a significant Sunni Arab population.
If 3 of the 14 provinces reject the document with 2/3 or more of the vote, the referendum will fail.
So far, Anbar and Salaheddin provinces have rejected the document, with votes of 96% and 82%, respectively. This was expected.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi electoral commission is already looking into possible voting irregularities, and expressed “surprise” at Secretary Condoleeza Rice’s assertion in London last week that the constitution would be approved.