Although the pollsters show that neither Bush or Kerry are projected to win the necessary 270 electoral college votes to be elected, I haven’t seen any speculation about that outcome in either the popular or alternative press.
The League of Women Voters excellent website describes the Constitutional process; here’s a summary.
First, in half the states, Electoral College members are NOT required to vote for the candidates to which they’ve been pledged.
Thus, a “rogue” elector could cast a vote at the December meeting of the Electoral College for anyone on the ballot, including the third party candidates. In point of fact, this has happened, but very rarely.
In the event no candidate receives 270 votes, it’s likely that there would be “a period of intense political horse-trading” in which electors pledged to third party candidates would be targeted to change their votes.
As the League website points out, this was thought to be a possibility for George Wallace’s electors in 1968. Of course, Nixon won the general election, thus precluding any such negotiations.
If a candidate fails to win sufficient votes at the meeting of the Electoral College in December, then the election reverts to the House, which would select one of the top 3 vote-getters as President: Bush, Kerry and presumably, Nader.
Interestingly, though, rather than 435 votes, the House has only 50 votes, one for each state, determined by its delegation. If the delegation ties, the state loses its vote.
If the House is unable to choose a President by Inauguration Day (January 20), the Senate chooses a Vice President-elect from the top 2 (e.g., Edwards and Cheney), and that person serves as President in the interim. The House would continue to vote until one Presidential candidate receives a majority (26).
If the Senate fails to elect an interim President, then the Speaker of the House (Dennis Hastert) acts as President until one is chosen.
Thus, the rules outlined by the Founders could lead to some interesting fodder for us political junkies this year.
Stay tuned.