The only count that matters in this year’s Presidential election is the Electoral College count, so the latest figures by state at sites like USA Election Polls are a lot more important than popularity contests like Rasmussen, which I think have overstated Obama’s support from the beginning.
Using USA Election Polls’ latest numbers, I did a little analysis this morning and came to the conclusion that McCain is a lot closer to winning than the MSM thinks.
Some of the numbers are old, and they precede the Biden announcement, but as of somewhere around the end of July, McCain would have had 253 electoral votes and Obama, 282, 12 more than needed to win the Presidency.
Taking a closer look, though, there is only a 1% difference between McCain and Obama in 5 states: Florida, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Montana.
Looks to me like this gives Charlie Crist, the popular governor of Florida, a leg up in the VP selection process.
The other possible choice, assuming he’d be interested, is Mayor Mike Bloomberg, whose background might appeal to Floridians who share his ethnicity.
I would love to see McCain select a female running mate, but Carly Fiorina, who was a lousy chief executive and a worse campaign spokesperson, just doesn’t do it for me. Aside from Condoleeza Rice or maybe Elizabeth Dole, neither of whom are on the short list, there aren’t any Republican women who have attained the kind of stature needed to make a credible candidate.
In any event, Obama’s selection of Joe Biden presents a great opportunity for McCain to solidify the Electoral College math. Provided he picks just about anyone but Romney.